The Great Replacement in Pennsylvania

The virtue, liberty, and independence of Penn's commonwealthy is at stake

Jun 08, 2024

Pennsylvania has long served as one of the core states of the American nation. Its Quaker settles shaped American culture and its citizens, such as Benjamin Franklin, shaped the very formation of the American nation. The state pioneered abolitionism, being the first state to abolish slavery through legislation in 1780, and formed the core of both the abolitionist movement and the American Colonization Society.

The state was once at the center of America’s industrial might and its labor movement, such as the men who took part in the UMW General Coal strike of 1922, helped to shape the rights and freedoms that American workers came to enjoy.

Today, however, Pennsylvania’s foundational White population is rapidly disappearing below a wave of massive demographic change, almost all of which has taken place in the post-1965 era. The Black population of Pennsylvania has swollen due to immigration rather than internal migration, the Hispanic population continues to steadily increase, and the Asian population has grown numerous times over since the era of multiculturalism began.

The current situation:

In the 1960s the demographics of Pennsylvania still reflected its historical norm: 92.3% of Pennsylvania’s population was of White extraction. Even as the Second Great Migration ended in the 1970s, the state still sported a 90.3% White populace.

The effects of the 1965 Immigration Act would soon be felt, however. Between 1960 and 1990 the White population shrank by 12.7 points and the state’s White population fell below 90% of the total. By 2010 Whites were barely 81% of Pennsylvania’s population and by 2020 European-extracted Whites formed just 70% of the commonwealth’s population.

Pennsylvania’s Black population, which totaled just 8.6% of the overall population at the end of the Second Great Migration, has continued to swell and today forms 11% of Pennsylvania’s population. This continued growth is not due to births or internal migration from other states, though. Instead, Pennsylvania’s Black population has continued to grow due to large-scale international migration of Blacks from Africa and the Caribbean.

Between 2000 and 2019 the Black immigrant population of Pennsylvania grew by a staggering 156% and the Black immigrant population in Philadelphia alone amounts to more than 120,000 individuals. Another 53,500 Blacks in the state are the underage children of these immigrants, while an additional 81,000 Blacks in the state hail from Africa.

In total, some 900,000 immigrants have come to call Pennsylvania home and comprise 7% of the state’s total population. Of these immigrants some 80% are non-White and less than 18% are from Europe, which historically provided the overwhelming majority of the state’s immigrant population.

The demographic changes are about more than raw numbers, though. These changes have brought significant levels of crime to a state, making it one of the states among the top 20 least safe states in the United States.

In January 2024 a Black man, Tyrik Jones, was arrested for the sexual assault and murder of a woman walking along a nature trail in the state. In late 2023 a Hispanic man (and illegal immigrant), Danelo Cavalcante, escaped from a Pennsylvania prison where he was serving time for stabbing his girlfriend more than a dozen times.

According to the Vera Institute Blacks are 5.6 times more likely to serve time in Pennsylvania prisons than Whites, while Hispanics are 2.8 times more likely to be incarcerated than the state’s founding White population. In total 67% of Pennsylvania’s prison population is non-White, or more than double the non-White share of the state’s overall population which stands at 30%.

With a cost per prisoner of more than $51,000 the state prison system serves as a serious drain on the resources of Pennsylvania’s White taxpaying population, and it is far from the only one. The state’s Medicaid program, which costs taxpayers some $37.4 billion, overwhelmingly covers the state’s non-White population. Just 23% of White Pennsylvanians are on the program, while 64.2% of Hispanics, 63% of Blacks, 59.7% of native Americans, and 25.6% of Asians are on the program’s benefit rolls.

The drive to change the state’s demographics, and provide goods and services to non-White populations, only continues to push ahead. In May of 2024, the state’s Democratic party introduced a billion to issue undocumented and illegal aliens with driver’s licenses.

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Policy Options:

In light of these demographic changes and the accompanying costs, it may seem that Pennsylvania is on a permanent downward trajectory, but this need not be the case. The voter base in the state is still significantly White and more than 62% of the state’s White male population voted for Donald Trump in 2020. While this is not itself an indicator of a positive trend, it is worth noting that 56% of White Americans support mass deportations of illegal aliens, and the state is trending significantly more pro-Trump in the 2024 polling. Trump has been continually promising to enact the “largest deportation” in American history.

Still, Pennsylvanians have a range of policy options beyond the simple deportation of illegal aliens. A series of other executive actions could significantly strengthen the demographics of the state in the near term.

In total some 83% of immigrants in Pennslyvania are non-White and the 922,000 immigrants in the state comprise a 7% share of the population. Additionally, only 55.7% of the state’s immigrant population possesses US citizenship.

In total, some 330,000 people could be removed from Pennsylvania if the state government enacted policies on the model of Florida or Louisiana. These states ban foreigners from certain countries from purchasing, leasing, or renting land near critical infrastructure such as military bases or pipelines. Pennsylvania could easily expand these laws to cover the state as a whole, thereby removing the ability of foreign-born people to settle in the state.

This same process could also be achieved if the Federal government canceled visas and green cards, and enforced deportation against illegal aliens. And nothing is stopping the Pennsylvania authorities from referring cases to Federal courts for review. Similarly, nothing is stopping Pennslyvania from enforcing deportations of their own, an action that Texas is currently taking.

An additional 56,000 persons in the state are the children of illegal aliens, and another 84,837 adults in the state live with an undocumented family member.

An additional policy option would be for the state to investigate cases of suspected immigration and naturalization fraud, both of which are widespread.

Some 70% of immigrants in the United States are admitted based on family ties, not for work or school.

This means that a large portion of people who have acquired US citizenship are likely to have done so fraudulently. The proof for this is best demonstrated by a 2008 investigation wherein the U.S. State Department discovered, through DNA testing, that over 80% of individuals admitted into the U.S. as family members of a “refugee” were not related to that individual.

The U.S. government has since mandated DNA testing for refugees who request their family members come to the U.S.

However, this DNA testing mandate has not been put in place for any other category of family reunification.

Simply by requiring proof that immigrants are related through marriage and birth certificates, and DNA testing, it is likely that a substantial portion of naturalized citizens in Pennsylvania, and in the U.S. as a whole, could have their citizenship revoked on the grounds of fraud.

Presuming that the fraud rate is only half of what it was in the famous refugee case, a rate of 40%, would denaturalize some 164,000 immigrants in Pennsylvania. Up to an additional 301,000 children of immigrants could also be expected to depart with their denaturalized parents, bringing the share of total deportations and repatriations from the state up to 851,000 people.

This entire policy suite would bring the White share of Pennsylvania’s population to roughly 75%, or an increase of roughly 5 points on the current figures. A start!

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