In Numbers - 2024 Thus Far
The number of illegal crossings so far in 2024
In fiscal year 2023, we wrote two pieces in this series, In Numbers - Thusfar and In Numbers - 2023, covering the illegal migrant waves that have been ceaselessly crashing into the borders of the United States. We are continuing our tradition of posting "In Numbers” as the fiscal year rolls on. We have now reached the midpoint of the 2024 fiscal year and it is time to look at the recent immigration figures.
Border Patrol, CBP, and other assorted agencies have, thus far, encountered roughly 1.5 million illegal immigrants in the fiscal year to date. These 1.5 million border crossers represent a population greater than those of New Hampshire or Hawaii. In total 11 states have smaller populations than the number of persons who have officially crossed the border in 2024 thus far.
This brings us to a more crucial point: not all border crossers are captured in the “encounter” statistics provided by DHS and there are several other categories of illegal border crossers to examine. Nor do these statistics capture the litany of programs used to admit illegal aliens into the country, nor the declining number of deportations.
In previous pieces, we have taken the step of including the number of deportations that the US government has undertaken, but deportations have effectively ceased according to the latest statistics from the Pew Research Center. Since May of 2023, the US government has permitted the vast bulk of border crossers to enter the country and remain on American soil.
According to the Department of Homeland Security, roughly 55.2% of those who are crossing the US border are single adults and they are overwhelmingly men. The materially poor families of the third world are not coming to the United States, the fighting-age men of the third world are coming to the United States. This is best highlighted by a news story from March of this year (2024) where a group of men ripped down a Texas border barrier and assaulted the National Guard troops attempting to prevent the illegal migrants’ entry into the country.
Still, intact family units constitute just 30% of those crossing the United States’ Southern land border, and roughly 6% are unaccompanied minors. However, those migrants who claim to be minors often lie about their age and status.
As if the above numbers were not reason enough for concern, there is also the number of migrants who go undetected and unapprehended each year. US Border agencies have an abysmal track record when it comes to tracking and intercepting those who cross into the nation illegally.
There are two crucial categories of people who fall into these groups. So-called “gotaways” and those who border staff never even lay eyes upon, let alone apprehend. According to the Center for Immigration Studies more than 860,000 “gotaways” have been allowed to simply walk into the United States over the past year, and have not been picked up by Border Patrol or ICE.
Then there are the “undetecteds”. In any given year 35-60% of border crossers go undetected or unencountered. And while this statistic includes “gotaways”, it is crucial to separate those who are seen walking into the US, but not intercepted, from the many millions who walk into the US without ever being noticed.
It is important to remember that when the US government gives a count of the people who "crossed the border" those are the people it encountered. Not a total of actual border crossers, to get that number you need to add about 50% on any given month.
So, when CBP tells the public that 301,982 people were "encountered" in August of 2024 what Americans deserve to know is that, in reality, anywhere from 500,000 to 870,000 people crossed their southern border.
With this in mind and taking into account the numbers and data given above by DHS, the number of people who cross the border into the United States will range from 5.2 to 8.9 million people for fiscal year 2024. And this is assuming that the migrant wave does not become worse.
The generally accepted average of missed encounters is 43%, and sticking to this number (which we have used in the past) would mean that our prediction of roughly 7.2 million crossings for the year of 2023 will also hold for 2024.
This number of people is comparable to the populations of Massachusetts or Tennessee.
This is a truly staggering number that should worry any American concerned with the demographic integrity of their nation.
As if compounding the problem, the Biden administration has been at work ensuring that as many of these border crossers as possible can legally live, work, and settle in the United States. All at the expense of American citizens. As of January 2024, the current administration has paroled more than 1 million illegal aliens into the United States. these foreigners will now compete with Americans for jobs and housing without fear of detection or deportation.
In other states, such as Illinois, migrants are being pushed into some of the most important sectors of American society —the recent decision by the state to allow immigrants to become police officers highlights this state of affairs particularly well.
These new arrivals are also committing heinous crimes. In the first weeks of March a 27-year-old police officer, husband, and father by the name of Christopher Gabb was struck and killed by an illegal alien drunk driver.
It would seem that neither major party’s establishment figures are interested in resolving this problem. This demographic crisis can only be solved one way, through the combination of a complete halt to migration and a comprehensive repatriation program.
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